A Sudden Shift in the South

After months of stalemate, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) – the semi‑autonomous movement that once challenged Yemen’s central government – crumbled under internal disagreements and mounting pressure from both local leaders and international mediators. Its collapse opened a narrow corridor for the internationally recognised government, led by President Rashad al‑Alawi, to re‑assert control over key towns in the southern governorates.

The government swiftly moved troops into Aden, the de‑facto capital of the south, and secured the strategic port of Mukalla. In a series of rapid operations, they dismantled militia checkpoints that had hampered trade and humanitarian aid for years. Residents, exhausted by years of uncertainty, greeted the troops with cautious optimism, hoping for a return to basic services and a chance to rebuild.

Government Momentum Grows

Capitalising on the STC’s disarray, the central government launched a coordinated offensive across the governorates of Abyan and Shabwah. Within weeks, they reclaimed several districts that had been under rebel control, restoring a thin thread of national authority.

International partners, including the United Nations and Gulf allies, quickly pledged additional logistical support. Humanitarian convoys, which had been blocked for months, began to flow again, delivering food, medicine, and fuel to war‑torn communities. The renewed flow of aid has already eased the plight of thousands of families who were on the brink of famine.

The Houthis Hold Their Ground

While the south witnesses a tentative resurgence of central authority, the north tells a different story. The Houthi movement, which seized the capital Sana’a in 2014, has remained unyielding. Their forces continue to dominate the highlands and maintain a tight grip on major supply routes.

Recent skirmishes near the port city of Hodeidah illustrate the Houthis’ determination. Despite a series of UN‑brokered ceasefire talks, clashes have persisted, disrupting the flow of commercial vessels that carry essential imports. The Houthis have also launched a barrage of missile and drone attacks targeting government positions in the north, signaling that any attempt to push them back will meet fierce resistance.

Why This Matters

The divergent trajectories of Yemen’s south and north carry profound implications. A strengthened government in the south could lay the groundwork for a unified administration capable of negotiating a lasting peace. It would also open the door for reconstruction projects that could revive Yemen’s battered economy, especially its crucial fishing and oil sectors.

Conversely, the Houthis’ resilience in the north underscores the fragility of any peace effort that ignores their influence. Their control over the Red Sea gateway threatens regional trade and fuels concerns about maritime security, affecting global shipping lanes that connect Europe, Asia, and Africa.

For the millions of Yemenis caught in the crossfire, the stakes are personal. A stable southern government could mean the return of schools, clinics, and jobs. Yet, without a parallel breakthrough in the north, the country risks remaining split, with humanitarian crises persisting on both sides.

The Road Ahead

Diplomats warn that the window of opportunity is narrow. Continued international pressure, coupled with inclusive dialogue that brings the Houthis to the negotiating table, will be essential. If the government can consolidate its recent gains while fostering a credible peace process, Yemen may finally edge toward the stability it has long been denied.

The world watches closely, aware that Yemen’s fate is intertwined with regional security, migration flows, and the broader fight against extremism. The coming weeks will test whether renewed momentum in the south can translate into a comprehensive solution for a nation torn apart for too long.