History shows us that authoritarian regimes often hang by a thread. One minute they seem unshakable, and the next, they collapse under the weight of public discontent and internal pressure. But when it comes to Iran, the situation is far from reaching that tipping point — at least for now.

Iran has faced waves of protests and opposition in recent years, driven by economic woes, political repression, and demands for personal freedoms. From the Green Movement in 2009 to the more recent protests sparked by Mahsa Amini’s tragic death, discontent continues to brew. Yet, the government has so far managed to cling to power, using brutal crackdowns and technology to stifle dissent.

The regime’s opponents, inside and outside the country, are watching closely. They hope that sustained international and economic pressure, paired with the ongoing unrest, could push Iran closer to a breaking point. But history is tricky — authoritarian systems are notorious for enduring long periods of rule before suddenly collapsing in dramatic fashion, as seen in places like the Soviet Union or Libya. Iran doesn’t appear to be at that stage yet.

What sets Iran apart is the complex structure of power within its regime. The dominance of religious leadership combined with military forces like the Revolutionary Guard helps maintain the status quo. However, cracks have started to appear. Younger generations are defying the rigid social rules, women are refusing to comply with strict dress codes, and more Iranians are vocalizing their frustrations despite the risks of punishment.

While change might not seem imminent, it’s also impossible to ignore the pressure building beneath the surface. External sanctions have weakened Iran’s economy, and the younger population’s desire for change grows louder each year. If history tells us anything, it’s to watch for the unexpected. Authoritarian regimes can appear stable — until they aren’t.

For now, Iran remains in a precarious balance. The regime may not be on the brink of collapse, but those who oppose it believe that every protest, every act of defiance, and every sanctioned blow adds weight to the regime’s increasingly fragile structure. The question remains: how much longer can it hold?

What’s clear is that both Iranians and the world will be watching closely, waiting for a possible turning point that could reshape not just the nation, but geopolitical dynamics across the region.