The Supreme Leader’s Grip

Iran’s political system is dominated by one man: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As the country’s highest authority, he controls the armed forces, the judiciary and the state media. Khamenei’s decisions are final, and he appoints the heads of key institutions. During the recent wave of street protests, his voice has echoed through televised sermons, urging citizens to stay loyal and warning of “foreign conspiracies” behind the unrest.

President Ebrahim Raisi: The Regime’s Public Face

Elected in 2021, President Ebrahim Raisi is a hard‑line cleric known for his tough stance on dissent. While the Supreme Leader holds ultimate power, Raisi handles the day‑to‑day government, from the economy to foreign policy. He has repeatedly blamed the protests on “anti‑Islamic elements” and promised swift crackdowns. His speeches are peppered with promises of stability, but his administration faces soaring inflation, unemployment and a battered oil revenue stream.

The Revolutionary Guard’s Shadow

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the muscle behind Iran’s political machine. Its commander, Major‑General Hossein Salami, oversees a sprawling network that includes elite troops, a powerful intelligence agency and a vast economic empire. The IRGC has been on the front lines, deploying units to quell demonstrations and arrest activists. Their involvement signals that the regime is prepared to use force to maintain control, regardless of international criticism.

Hardliners vs. Reformists: A Fractured Elite

Even within the ruling elite, there are cracks. Reform‑leaning politicians, such as former President Hassan Rohani’s allies, have quietly urged dialogue and caution, warning that excessive repression could deepen unrest. Hardliners, however, push for harsher measures, seeing any concession as a sign of weakness. This internal tug‑of‑war influences policy decisions and shapes how the protests are managed.

Why It Matters Globally

Iran’s internal dynamics ripple far beyond its borders. The country sits on a strategic chokepoint for global oil and controls significant regional influence, from Iraq to Lebanon. Persistent unrest could destabilize oil markets, embolden opposition groups, and shift the balance of power in the Middle East. Moreover, the world watches how Iran balances its nuclear ambitions with domestic stability; any escalation could trigger a broader geopolitical response.

What Comes Next?

The next weeks will reveal whether Iran’s leadership can quell the protests through force, negotiation or a mix of both. International actors, from the United States to the European Union, are watching closely, ready to adjust sanctions or diplomatic overtures based on Tehran’s moves. For ordinary Iranians, the stakes are personal: a chance to demand change or face deeper repression. The outcome will shape Iran’s future trajectory and its role on the world stage.